Misprice

Find the misprice. Prove the edge.

Misprice monitors sportsbooks + prediction markets in real time, builds a single source of truth, and flags mispriced lines with confidence, liquidity, and an evidence trail.

See how it works
Status: Band A → Band B wiring in progress • MVP target: 90 days

Cross-market truth: sportsbook odds + prediction markets + models → one probability.

Edge detection: arbitrage, +EV, and divergence with kill switches.

Receipts built-in: snapshots + hashes so signals are auditable, not vibes.

How Misprice works

Adapters
Orchestrator
Snapshot Store
Truth Models
Edge Detector
Alerts & Logs

Every cycle, Misprice pulls prices from multiple sources, normalizes them into canonical event IDs, stores time-versioned snapshots, estimates fair probabilities, and surfaces edges only when data freshness + liquidity + confidence pass safety gates.

Use cases

Sportsbook mispricing (+EV)

Detect bets where the model's fair probability beats the market implied probability—only when confidence and liquidity clear thresholds.

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Sportsbook ↔ prediction market divergence

Prediction markets sometimes price information faster. Sportsbooks sometimes price sharper. Misprice finds the spread and tracks it over time.

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Audit trail / shadow logging

Compliance-grade receipts. Every signal can be traced back to inputs, timestamps, and a reproducible snapshot.

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Live Wiring Proof
DEGRADED / MOCK until keys

This will display the LIVE PROOF SIGNATURE output from verify_live_end_to_end.py once the system is fully wired.

Waiting for live verification...

Built for serious operators

Not a tips feed. Not a Discord. Misprice is a system: transparent inputs, deterministic IDs, and repeatable outputs.

Who it's for / not for

For

  • Serious bettors
  • Quant-curious builders
  • Small syndicates

Not for

  • Lock pickers
  • Casual tip buyers
  • Anyone wanting guaranteed returns

Built by independent operators. Shipping in public. Evidence-first.

Get early access to the private alpha

Join the list and tell us what markets you care about. We'll invite the earliest users who can help validate edge quality and workflow.

Ready to get started?

See the roadmap