Infrastructure-grade execution.
Misprice is a production system running on EC2 with a modular architecture designed for auditability and extension.
Execution Pipeline
Data Aggregation
Probability Engine
Truth Gap Detection
Gate Framework
Portfolio Tracking
Evidence Pipeline
1
Data Aggregation
Real-time prices from Polymarket, Kalshi, and public sources
2
Probability Engine
AI models (Vertex AI) estimate calibrated probabilities
3
Truth Gap Detection
Flag markets where model and price diverge by ≥3%
4
Gate Framework
Block low-confidence signals (stale data, timing, source health)
5
Portfolio Tracking
Log decisions, track P&L, measure calibration
6
Evidence Pipeline
Generate hash-verified artifacts for every prediction
Orchestrator
- •Python-based scheduler
- •Configurable cycle intervals
- •Health check integration
- •Graceful degradation modes
Adapters
- •Pluggable architecture
- •Standardized output schema
- •Source health tracking
- •Rate limiting + retry logic
Snapshot Store
- •SQLite (proof phase)
- •Time-indexed queries
- •Hash verification on read
- •PostgreSQL planned for prod
Truth Models
- •Modular model registry
- •Weighted synthesis
- •Confidence intervals
- •Calibration tracking
Edge Detector
- •Compare truth to live prices
- •Apply confidence gates
- •Liquidity thresholds
- •Surface or block signals
Evidence Log
- •Append-only structure
- •SHA-256 chaining
- •JSON-serialized entries
- •Export for audit
Deployment
EC2 (t3.micro)Python 3.11SQLiteSystemdCloudWatch
Running 24/7 during proof phase. ~$12/month infrastructure cost.